Monday, January 30, 2012


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DESTINATION: ****

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001606

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: POLLSTERS PREDICT AKP WIN, LONG-TERM
RESENTMENT TOWARD US

REF: 06 ANKARA 4888

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Nancy McEldowney, for reasons 1.
4 (b,d)

1. (C) SUMMARY. A cross section of leading pollsters from
Ankara and Istanbul agreed that public opinion in Turkey
shows deep polarization, disaffection and fear about the
future. Most significantly, all agree that under today's
conditions and barring unforeseen interventions, the ruling
Justice and Development Party (AKP) would come to power again
as a single party government. They also believe that
hostility toward the US is likely to continue even if US
policies change. END SUMMARY.

2. (C) In a recent discussion with several diverse polling
organizations, the pollsters viewed political players
slightly differently but found consensus on major points.
Metropoll's Ozer Sencar observed that political polarization
is not the result of a fundamental social conflict, but
rather a lack of real choice. Voters default to AKP and
opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) for lack of an
alternative; virtually no leaders inspire confidence. He
added that while about 20 percent of AKP supporters are
rigidly committed to the party, AKP is now approaching 40
percent in polls. This surge is due both to Erdogan's skill,
as the only leader who "offers" a bright and positive future,
and the utter lack of competition from other party leaders.
(All agreed that CHP's support is in spite of Deniz Baykal,
who is openly hated within the party). Mustafa Karaman of
POLAR contended that only Erdogan and Genc Party leader Cem
Uzan excite people. Emre Erdogan of Istanbul's Infakto
Research credited AKP's track record, particularly on health
care, for giving it a more solid footing than it had when it
swept into parliament in 2002. Ibrahim Uslu of ANAR (one of
AKP's main polling contractors) argued that AKP is not a
"conjuncture party," where the stars align briefly to send it
to the top, but rather a party that already had a solid
foundation. He stated that the top determinants of voter
preferences are one's family situation for the last five
years and expectations of the future. Political performance
is only one -- and not the most important -- factor.

3. (C) Pollsters reported that a confirmed minority --
between one-fifth and one-third of Turks -- see the AKP as a
threat to secularism. The vast majority holding this view
will vote CHP, they agreed. Far-right Nationalist Action
Party (MHP) is unlikely to win their votes because the party
has not established a clear position on hallmark "secularist"
issues like the headscarf debate. Most voters do not see a
threat from AKP, and at the same time respect the Turkish
General Staff (TGS). Indeed, the TGS may have overplayed its
hand; the public defensively backed AKP following the April
27 TGS memorandum warning of threats to the secular republic.
Emre Erdogan observed that the public resents
supragovernmental entitites that obstruct political
decisions; "lawless decisions" are unpopular. CHP also
enjoyed a boost in the wake of the memorandum and mass
rallies in major cities, but only 3-5 percentage points.

4. (C) On perceptions of the United States, one participant
joked, "If you work a bit harder, you can bring your ratings
down to zero." Frustration toward the US is almost
completely directed at the current administration and at our
Northern Iraq and PKK policies (with the exception of extreme
nationalist and extreme religious individuals, Turks in
general "have no problem with the American people").
However, participants expressed doubts as to whether public
opinion would bounce back even if these two areas were
addressed; some were skeptical that after years of anger and
frustration stemming from the Iraq war, inaction on the PKK,
"infamous maps," and the perception Turkey is being divided,
US efforts in Northern Iraq could win back Turkish hearts.

5. (C) The pollsters were cautious about predicting beyond
the immediate future; they expect the July 22 general
election to occur on time, but cautioned that pressures exist
in both directions. Emre Erdogan observed that the Supreme
Election Board is determined to keep to the planned date and
the Istanbul money elites do not want a postponement.

ANKARA 00001606 002 OF 002


Ibrahim Uslu remained concerned that -- even short of a
cross-border operation or declaration of martial law -- if
security forces determined that they could not protect the
ballot boxes, they could postpone the vote. A sense of fear
pervades in the Turkish public: fear of the AKP, the
military, the jandarma, separatism, and terrorism (Turks are
angry, not afraid, of the US). Emphasizing that one month is
a long time in Turkish politics, each predicted that, under
today's conditions at least, AKP will prevail with a
single-party government.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON

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